July 2009
Job growth and tourism spending are bright spots for the region's economy
Solid job growth and encouraging tourism indicators are bright spots for the region's economy, according to data compiled by the Metro Denver Economic Development Corporation (Metro Denver EDC) in its Monthly Economic Summary for July 2009.
Metro Denver’s labor market numbers fared better far than state and national trends in May as the region’s employers added more than 12,000 jobs. The increase was roughly consistent with seasonal norms, while gains at the state and national levels represented some of the weakest hiring for the month of May in years.
Each of the 11 Metro Denver industry supersectors except manufacturing and information added jobs between April and May, with the strongest gains in leisure and hospitality and professional and business services. Much of the gain in professional and business services occurred in the business services side of the industry. Additional months’ data are necessary to confirm a true turning point in the labor market, but increased hiring activity in the business services sector often precedes stronger business activity overall.
A recent Moody’s Economy.com and MSNBC forecast named Colorado among five states most likely to recover first. Economists expect the states – Colorado, Texas, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho – could report growth by year’s end thanks to milder housing downturns, strong energy and technology sectors, and relatively stable household credit.
The national recession has taken a heavy toll on consumer finances, and many households are limiting or cancelling vacation plans. However, if forecasts for Independence Day travel released by the American Automobile Association (AAA) hold true, the West may be one of the only U.S. regions to report an increase in July 4th tourism this year.
Forecasters expected that a comparatively strong Mountain Region economy would attract more holiday weekend visitors, and the large vehicle count reported at Eisenhower Tunnel is at least an early confirmation of the optimistic outlook. While a better-than-average travel year in 2009 could still mean Colorado venues attract fewer visitors by historical standards, the state’s highly-regarded cultural opportunities and recreational attractions should support a healthy rebound in tourism as visitors resume travel. In the meantime, increased tourism traffic from residents is helping many venues offset the weak economy.
"Colorado consumers are definitely feeling better about their situations overall. We're seeing a trend that many citizens are exploring Colorado and spending their vacation money locally, which is very positive for our businesses," explained Patty Silverstein, chief economist for the Metro Denver EDC and president of Development Research partners.
Metro Denver tourism indicators are weathering the recession fairly well, and other economic indicators have shown preliminary signs of improvement. The area’s home sales have increased, and Mountain Region consumer confidence is somewhat stronger than confidence measures elsewhere. Metro Denver’s foreclosure trend is also improving, and the region’s commercial real estate markets – while still struggling – are faring better than many other markets.
Overall, nine Metro Denver indicators moved in a positive monthly direction, compared to 10 indicators in the prior report. As in the prior two reports, two indicators moved positively on an annual basis.
The
Monthly Economic Summary provides a snapshot of metro area economic activity, as well as its relationship to national and regional economic trends.