Metro Denver EDC releases 2009 economic forecast
Today, the Metro Denver Economic Development Corporation (Metro Denver EDC) presented the 2009 Economic Forecast for Metro Denver at Vectra Bank's 16th Annual Economic Forecast Breakfast. Chief Economist Patty Silverstein and Executive Vice President Tom Clark presented the year-in-review and a five-year outlook on the local economy. The event was sponsored by the Metro Denver EDC and the Denver Metro Chamber of Commerce.
As the national recession continues in 2009, businesses, households, and governments need time to regroup and reprioritize. While the realities of recession appear daunting, the stabilizing potential of proactive policies and long-term growth prospects are equally powerful.
"We have an opportunity here in Metro Denver to be the 'poster child' for the national stimulus package," stated Tom Clark, executive vice president of the Metro Denver EDC. "We are truly in the right place with the infrastructure to take advantage of these opportunities."
Metro Denver's economy should fare better than many other metros in 2009 due to the region's milder housing correction and diverse industry base and strength in fossil and renewable energy and aerospace. The region will experience a smaller-than-average employment loss of 0.4 percent in 2009, and the expected unemployment rate of 6.5 percent will remain more than one percentage point below the national rate.
In general, economic development options are limited to "increasing tourism, exports, and building 'stuff' to stem the loss of jobs and confidence in any region," stated Clark. "Colorado is a place that people are looking to as a safe haven. Whereas other parts of our country will be in a quagmire for the next two to four years, and portions of the rural Midwest have no recovery in sight."
Economic events of 2008 trimmed demand for Metro Denver's existing and new office space. Speculative office construction will decline in 2009, particularly as the market works to absorb space already delivered with limited pre-leasing. Even with slower trends overall, though, construction will continue where well-capitalized projects are carefully designed to meet market needs.
Similarly, Metro Denver's industrial market maintained momentum through much of 2008 but finally weakened in the fourth quarter. Industrial building and leasing activity will continue to slow in 2009. However, organic growth in Metro Denver's dynamic industries and the region's growing reputation in the global marketplace should help blunt the impacts of a weak economy.
Many prominent rankings from 2008 will help the region weather the current recession:
- A report by the Washington, D.C.-based Brookings Institution named Colorado's Front Range among five "Mountain Megas," or regions that are becoming the new economic and political centers of the central U.S. According to the report, rapid population growth, a well-educated workforce, and strong infrastructure are increasing the national influence of the Front Range and several neighboring regions.
- Additionally, Colorado metro areas have a greater capacity to create and sustain jobs than many cities nationwide, according to the Milken Institute's "2008 Best Performing Cities Index." Grand Junction, Pueblo, Greeley, the Denver-Aurora MSA, and the Fort Collins-Loveland MSA each placed within the top 50 metros in their respective size classes.
- Metro Denver is one of the world's top 40 "megas," or areas with high concentrations of economic activity and good quality of life. According to Richard Florida's recently published Who's Your City?, Metro Denver's reputation for economic opportunities, leadership, and community well-being make the region one of the world's best places to live and work.
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